Consumers are viewing Apple computer products as a user-friendly alternative to Microsoft's
Apple's Bright Holiday Forecast
By Jack M. Germain
MacNewsWorld
11/27/06 4:00 AM PT
Consumers are viewing Apple computer
products as a user-friendly alternative to
Microsoft's Windows operation system, explained Dan
de Grandpre, founder of dealnews.com. Shipments of
Macintosh computers rose 33 percent this year, almost
triple the 12 percent rise in overall U.S. sales of
personal computers, according to market research
company IDC.
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) Computers is
sitting pretty in the catbird seat as holiday
shoppers are expected to continue their run on
Apple's iPods and the recently released MacBook
with Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) Core 2 Duo
processors.
Apple officials predicted at summer's end that a
"halo effect" would take hold as Windows computer
users purchased iPods and came back to buy Apple
computer products.
Industry watchers agree that successful nationwide
television marketing -- combined with increased sales
of Apple computer and music products since the second
quarter of this year -- put Apple in excellent
position for gains with holiday shoppers.
Soaring
Sales
"Sales are
going to be higher this buying season than in
previous seasons. The street perspective for Apple is
now high," Dan de Grandpre, founder of
dealnews.com told MacNewsWorld. "The iPod
Shuffle is going to be one of the best gifts to
get this year. It is definitely a fashion
statement to get a new one."
All of Apple's efforts on the iPod are paying off
with sales of its computer line, according to de
Granpre. "The Mac Apple line is a good mixture of
models that are all selling briskly," he said.
There is no doubt that the sales forecast for Apple
this holiday season is very rosy, noted Clem
Chambers, CEO of stocks and investment for the
Advances Financial
Network.
"Apple is very nearly back to its all-time stock
market high, valuing the company at $70 billion.
After a nasty correction during the summer, Apple has
jumped back up to $84," Chambers said.
Tumble
Possible
Despite the
continuing growth in Apple's financial health, there
are warning signs that Apple is riding a trend that
cannot continue indefinitely.
Sales analysis showed that Apple sales earlier this
year marked 5.3 million iPods and 1.07 million
Macintosh computers. That reflects about a 500
percent increase in iPod sales and a 40 percent hike
in Mac sales over last year's holiday buying frenzy.
However, some predict that such double-digit growth
cannot continue, Chambers included. Despite this
upwards trajectory, he said the charts seem to show
the stock forming a classic double top or head and
shoulders.
"This could signal bad news as it suggests another
possible tumble," cautioned Chambers. The likelihood
of that happening before the end of the current
buying season is very slim, though.
That's because the holiday period is a time of high
expectations among companies with hot products. For
instance, Apple's video-capable iPod and the iPod
nano were white hot last year. Buying trends predict
similar success this year.
Driving
Sales
Consumers
are viewing Apple computer products as a
user-friendly alternative to Microsoft's (Nasdaq: MSFT) Windows operation
system, explained de Grandpre. Shipments of
Macintosh computers rose 33 percent this year,
almost triple the 12 percent rise in overall U.S.
sales of personal computers, according to market
research company IDC.
"The reasons are basic," said de Granpre. "Just as
the successful television commercials say, Apples are
simplicity and are easier to use than a Windows PC.
This marketing approach is helping Apple in expanding
its user base."
Apple's clever national marketing strategy , based on
the Mac versus Windows characters in the popular
television ads, is converting to mom and pop sales,
he claimed.
"People who are new to computers are choosing Macs
for their ease of use," de Grandpre said.
Battle Lines
Drawn
The battle
lines between Microsoft and Apple are being drawn up
in several different territories. One area is music
supremacy. Microsoft has just launched Zune to rival
the iPod.
"[Microsoft has] tried this before, of course, but
this time the software giant is looking to imitate
Apple's very own business model," Chambers noted.
Marketing cool aside, Microsoft's offering has
received a catalog of criticism, he added. Critics
have blasted the Redmond clan with everything from
the hardware seeming a little rushed to complaints
about its bulkiness and poor battery life.
Meanwhile, product additions and revamps continue to
prolong the iPod's shelf-life, Chambers said. "This
will probably prove too much for the Zune, especially
when Apple has a plethora of iPod products at its
disposal," he predicted.
However, on the console-front, Microsoft could be
winning the battle for consumer approval. Its
Xbox Live online video game service is
set to go live on Nov. 22.
"Pricing details for the service, which will allow
users with broadband to send text and voice messages
to each other, watch movie trailers and other product
demonstrations, are sketchy, but what isn't in any
doubt is that Apple's 'iTV' compact set-top box won't
be available until early next year," Chambers said.
OS Confuses
Predictions
The
ultimate determiner of which computing product wins
out is blurred by the race to the new operating
system. If Apple can capitalize on its halo effect
with a brand new OS along with its already-released
Intel-based computer, it could steal much of
Microsoft's thunder over the new Windows Vista OS.
"Add into the equation the race to the finish for
Vista and Leopard, Microsoft and Apple's respective
yet-to-be-launched operating systems, and the picture
is even more speculative and confusing," Chambers
concluded.
All things considered, he does not believe Microsoft
will be able to pack a big enough punch to impact the
'Santa effect' for Apple.
"But 2007
is going to be interesting," he
said.